The battle for Gaza is raging with Palestinians using their guns meant to ensure their liberation from Israeli occupation to kill each other in a self-destructive madness. It is a civil war in the making -- and a power struggle, too. Reports indicate that the situation in the Gaza Strip - a 360 square km patch of land where 1.5 million Palestinians have been squeezed into - is turning favourable to Hamas, the Islamic group which has locked horns with Fatah led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
It was in February this year that the two sides signed a power-sharing agreement in the Muslim holy city of Makkah in Saudi Arabia. But instead of peace, Palestinians saw bloodshed. The current spate of violence that has killed more than 70 people is the second time that clashes went out of control since the Makkah deal, in terms of which the important portfolios of interior, foreign and finance were given to neutral parties and the two rivals formed a unity government.
Last month too, hundreds died in the inter-Palestinians clashes, the first since the unity government was formed.
Fatah was to be blamed for triggering last month's clashes. It dishonoured the spirit of the Makkah deal when President Abbas deployed 3,000 policemen loyal to him to wrest control of the Gaza Strip from Hamas. The Interior Ministry, which according to the Makkah deal, was headed by a neutral person, was not consulted. Interior Minister Hani al-Qawasmi under whose purview such deployment should come, resigned in protest saying he had little power over matters of security.
A series of ceasefires were mooted and adopted but before the blood on the floor could dry, shots were fired to indicate that the game was not over.
The question that arises is: why is Fatah hell-bent on weakening Hamas in Gaza? If Fatah wants to increase its political fortunes and defeat Hamas in the next assembly elections, it should try to win the hearts of the Palestinians living in Gaza. Even if Fatah justifies its action saying that Hamas should be checked to resurrect the peace process with Israel, violence is not the answer. It is said that Fatah strongman Mohammed Dahalan is giving orders from Cairo, where he is recuperating, to his men to go all-out and bring Hamas to its knees while Abbas talks to Hamas leader Khaled Meshal regarding a ceasefire.
The situation exposes the weakness of Abbas who has little control over his own men.
The problem with Abbas is that he tries to be president of a militant society which has been living with violence for the past eight decades or so. Since the Ottoman Turks were defeated in the First World War, the lot of the Palestinians has been one of misery accentuated by the humiliation of being occupied and being ruled by foreign powers - first the British and now the Israelis.
Even as the Palestinians undergo untold hardship for the whole world to see on television screens, more harm is being inflicted on them with Israel grabbing more and more land by building a security barrier across the West Bank. What's sad, the western world led by the United States has little sympathy for the Palestinian people. There is very little political support for the Palestinian cause in the West where rightwing anti-Arab racists masquerade as liberals.
The West promoted Abbas who in turn showed the West that he too was a liberal. He did not don the military uniform which Arafat refused to part with till his death. He tried to introduce democratic ideals to the peace-starved Palestinian people living in abject poverty, little realizing that democracy was not priority number one for the Palestinians. He tried to renounce violence while his people died in violence perpetrated on them by Israel.
Abbas' civility was seen as a sign of weakness by the Palestinian people who believe that what has been taken from them through violence can be taken back only through violence.
After Arafat's death, Abbas became the head of the Palestinian Authority — an institution set up under the 1993 Oslo peace deal to administer areas from which Israel would withdraw. But he inherited an administration tarnished by allegations of corruption and mismanagement. The end result was the Palestinian people handed an easy victory to Hamas in the January 2005 elections.
Instead of honouring the people's verdict, the West imposed sanctions on the Hamas regime. It withheld humanitarian and development aid to Palestinian areas while Israel refused to release taxes it collected on behalf of the Palestinian Authority. The West and Israel demanded that Hamas renounce violence and recognize Israel and all agreements the Palestinian Authority had signed with Israel.
The standoff led to a collapse of the Palestinian economy with the authorities finding it difficult to pay the salaries of public servants who account for nearly half the Palestinian work force. The collapse of the economy only expedited the inter-Palestinian civil war, which Arafat with his political astuteness averted when Israel demanded that he disarm Hamas and other Islamic militants. But Abbas walked into the trap.
Latest reports indicate that Hamas has taken over the Fatah headquarters in Gaza. One senior Abbas aide said, "Gaza is lost", while others say the Palestinian Authority President would make a major announcement. There is speculation that he will dissolve the unity government and declare emergency or form an emergency cabinet.
But Abbas will have to seek parliamentary approval if he wants to extend the life of the emergency cabinet. Given the rising animosity between the two sides, it is unlikely that Hamas which controls parliament will vote for the extension. The move will only aggravate the crisis with the violence spreading to the relatively peaceful West Bank, where Fatah is said to be stronger.
One possibility is that the current clashes will lead to the division of what is left of Palestine -- with Hamas ruling Gaza and Fatah the West Bank. The ultimate victor in this violent power struggle among the Palestinians is Israel. The clashes will only delay efforts to revive the Palestinian peace process. In other words, Israel will continue to occupy Palestine, build more settlements and alter the path of its security wall across the West Bank, thus grabbing more Palestinian land.
The truth is that with each passing day, the Palestinians are losing more land and the resolution of the Palestinian crisis will become more and more difficult, if not complicated. Israel would also not agree to a 'one nation two people' solution because if the Palestinians were incorporated into Israel and the Palestinian refugees are allowed to return, it will give birth to an Arab-majority Israel. Israeli leaders say their country is a Jewish state and should remain a Jewish majority country.
What Israel and the West are trying to impose on the Palestinian people is a two-state solution living side by side. But they are not going to restore the 1967 border. The West and Israel are now talking about new ground realities. This means the future Palestine state will be whatever remains after Israel takes all what it wants from the areas it is now occupying.
Compounding the present crisis is a move to send an international peacekeeping force to Gaza. Both the United Nations and the European Union are in favour of such a force. Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has also given his nod. But it is unlikely that Hamas which virtually controls Gaza will agree.
The international force, to be formed in terms of a United Nations Security Council resolution, may have a mandate to disarm all militants. This will result in the Palestinian crisis taking a different turn -- of course a violent turn.
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